Since 31 Jan 2020 · independent estimates
The cost of leaving
A running tally of what independent economists estimate Brexit has cost the UK economy — GDP, trade, jobs and investment — counted against the day the UK left the EU.
What that could have funded
Based on illustrative unit costs: £500m per hospital, £300k per home, £35k per public-sector salary.
The ledger
Figures count up as they enter viewLong-run UK productivity and GDP around 4% lower than remaining in the EU.
Projected lost output by 2035 versus staying in the EU; £140bn already gone in 2023.
Nearly two million fewer UK jobs in 2023 than the no-Brexit path, rising to 3m by 2035.
Long-run reduction in UK trade intensity relative to remaining in the EU.
Estimated hit to goods exports from leaving the single market and customs union.
Estimated extra food bill per household by the end of 2021 from Brexit trade barriers.
Estimated short-term fall after leaving the single market and customs union, using firm-level customs data.
Industry estimate of small UK businesses that stopped exporting to the EU since 2019.
Where the numbers come from
8 sources- (a)Office for Budget Responsibility — Brexit analysisSource ↗
- (b)NIESR — Brexit and the Economy, Ten Years OnSource ↗
- (c)Cambridge Econometrics — London's Economy After Brexit (GLA)Source ↗
- (d)Centre for European Reform — The cost of Brexit, ten years onSource ↗
- (e)The Independent — Brexit to leave UK £311bn worse off by 2035Source ↗
- (f)LSE Centre for Economic Performance — Brexit and UK food pricesSource ↗
- (g)CEPR — Deep integration and UK firm-level trade after BrexitSource ↗
- (h)Chartered Institute of Export — Small businesses leaving EU tradeSource ↗